In this second part, the goal will be to talk about macroeconomic and geopolitical events and their possible consequences over the past few weeks, opening week of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Some very relevant facts or comments were seen, starting with Joe Biden’s trip to Japan, which when asked about Taiwan’s possible armed defense, answered the yes. It wasan open provocation to China. The next day, he finally declared that fuel prices are a reflection of the Energy Transition and that they will remain so for some time, but it was a necessary evil to achieve a green economy.
From this statement, I am free to speak more openly and not be called a “conspirator” or “denialist”.
At the same time at the WEF, Elizabeth Cousens, president of the United Nations Foundation, said, “The UN is trying, but there needs to be a much more ambitious response to what is already a catastrophic humanitarian crisis,” during a live discussion of the Global Stage organized by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. This catastrophic crisis is the more than announced food crisis. The criticism was direct to countries that are restricting food and fertilizer exports and causing such a catastrophic scenario. It should be noted here that the criticism is direct to the priorities of food and energy security on climate goals.
On the same day, Norwegian fertilizer giant YARA said, “donors urgently need to close the $10 billion funding gap in the UN food program to avert a catastrophe,” blaming of course, “sanctions on Russian fertilizers and Ukraine’s grain export problems.“
So if thiscrisis was completely unpredictable (sarcasm), because sanctions on Russia withdrew 15% of the global supply of fertilizers, could it be a surprise? I would like to add two more relevant facts already covered by Wolfpicks: i) in October 2021 China stopped with its fertilizer exports, ii) another major fertilizer exporter, especially Urea (nitrogen), is another sanctioned country, Belarus.
The curious thing is that the same YARA, in September 2021, five months before the conflict in Europe, said it would reduce ammonia production in Europe by 40% due to high natural gas prices and that it would besouring the product of its plants in Trinidad, the United States and Australia. Just to remind you, at that time the price of natural gas in the U.S. was well below current levels. Anyway, the most expensive gas option at that time in Europe was an absolutely decision of their governments, blocking the flow of the then new Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Surreal is the term of listening to the UN, the G7, the WEF and YARA putting 100% of the blame the European conflict, when the decision of the sanction was not from Russia.
Finally, two of them: either these UN, NATO and G7 personnel are very incompetent who have taken decisions of which they have not measured the consequences (very unlikely), or at the end of the day have provoked a catastrophic food crisis with the aim of uniting countries against the Asian powers: China, India (which restricted wheat exports) and Russia.
As Biden himself has already stated that high fuel prices are “transitory”, just as inflation was. I can rest easy to say, without fear of criticism, that surely the second option makes more sense. The G7 has triggered this catastrophic food crisis with the aim of uniting the “world” against countries that are putting their countries’ food security ahead of global food security and especially climate goals.
Data
I would like to take a short break in the reasoning to include some data that will be of great relevance to conclusion.
The G7 member countries are Germany, Canada, the United States, France, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom, although the European Union is also represented.
In the East or Asia, the biggest power countries outside the G7 are Russia, China, and India.
As we can see from the table above, in 2020, Asian powers emitted 87% more GHG (greenhouse gases) than the G7 countries.
Conclusion
So, what would be in common, high oil prices, Energy Transition, catastrophic starvation event in the poorest nations and a military crisis in the South Pacific?
In, 05/27/22, CNN brought an article about the beginning of the diplomatic trip through several Pacific island countries of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. It began on 5/26, and will extend until next week, when a broad regional security agreement proposed by China is expected to be discussed in a meeting with other region Foreign Ministers. That is, while Joe Biden, as good talker he is, makes bravado towards Taiwan, China intends to organize itself before responding. The difference between American and Chinese foreign policy is stark.
That said, should we prepare for a war, even if “cold”? It probably is.
But going back to the link between the facts. It is very clear that the Western media, the G7 and the influential entrepreneurs gathered in Davos are preparing for new narrative. This time, much blunter.
Will we in the West, who in addition to defending democracy, which now wants an Internal Terrorism Act, will now pass to defend climate goals and hunger in the world militarily?
As we saw from the above data, the G7 has 9.9% of the World Population, emits 22.51% GHG, but has 45.8% of global GDP, now wants to impose its ideas on the entire planet, even if this group has emission of GHG per captures well above the Asian Powers.
This group of countries, consolidated in the WEF, is willing to go to the War against Asian Powers that they are accused of not being supportive, of thinking first of their own food and energy security and that in terms lose pitos emit much less GHG than this group that dominates global GDP.
And they will try to convince us that, this is for our own good, so that they save the planet from those nations that think only of themselves and not in a global world (then the theory of globalism was conspiracy theory). Those who are pitting themselves against their plans for a Global Government are harming the planet and the poorest populations.
Each of the readers may come to their own conclusion, but I think this week, the G7, the UN, the WEF and Joe Biden have made clear their expansionist plans, and will use empathy and solidarity, or lack thereof, as an instrument of engagement, but I think they will have a surprise soon.
